Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February

by Invoice McBride on three/16/2017 03:42:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler
Primarily based on state and native realtor/MLS reviews from throughout the nation launched by right this moment, I undertaking that US present house gross sales as estimated by the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual charge of 5.41 million in February, down four.9% from January’s preliminary tempo however up four.zero% from final February’s seasonally unadjusted tempo. The YOY % achieve in unadjusted gross sales for final month ought to be a lot decrease than that for seasonally adjusted gross sales, reflecting this February’s decrease enterprise day depend in comparison with final February (final 12 months, in fact, was a bissextile year).
On the stock entrance, native realtor/MLS information recommend that the variety of present houses on the market final month elevated from January to February by a bit greater than was the case a 12 months in the past. By the identical token, nevertheless, native realtor/MLS information – in addition to information compiled by Realtor.com – recommend that the YOY decline within the stock of houses on the market is bigger than that implied by the NAR information, making a projection a little bit difficult. My “best guess” is that the NAR’s estimate for the variety of present houses on the market on the finish of February will probably be 1.72 million, up 1.eight% from January’s preliminary estimate (which ought to be revised downward), and down eight.zero% from a 12 months in the past.
Lastly, native realtor/MLS information recommend that the NAR’s estimate of the median present SF house gross sales worth for February ought to be about 7.2% from final February.
CR Be aware: The NAR is scheduled to launch February present house gross sales on Wednesday, March 22nd.