by Bill McBride on three/23/2017 10:12:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Dwelling Product sales in February had been at a seasonally adjusted annual value (SAAR) of 592 thousand.
The sooner three months combined had been revised down barely.
"Sales of new single-family houses in February 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.1 percent above the revised January rate of 558,000 and is 12.8 percent above the February 2016 estimate of 525,000."
Click on on on graph for greater image.
The first graph displays New Dwelling Product sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current product sales value.
Even with the rise in product sales over the last numerous years, new dwelling product sales are nonetheless fairly low historically.
The second graph displays New Dwelling Months of Present.
The months of present declined in February to 5.4 months.
The all time doc was 12.1 months of present in January 2009.
That’s now throughout the common fluctuate (decrease than 6 months present is common).
"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 266,000. This represents a supply of 5.4 months at the current sales rate."
On inventory, in accordance with the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three courses: Not Started, Beneath Constructing, and Achieved.
The third graph displays the three courses of inventory starting in 1973.
The inventory of achieved properties in the marketplace stays to be low, and the combined entire of achieved and beneath improvement may also be low.
The ultimate graph displays product sales NSA (month-to-month product sales, not seasonally adjusted annual value).
In February 2017 (pink column), 49 thousand new properties had been purchased (NSA). Last yr, 45 thousand properties had been purchased in February.
The all time extreme for February was 109 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for February was 22 thousand in 2011.
This was above expectations of 565,000 product sales SAAR. I'll have further later for the time being.